Studi Komparatif Akurasi Model Prediksi Kebangkrutan Altman dan Ohlson Terhadap Perusahaan Go Public di Bursa Efek Indonesia

Sugianto, Toni (2010) Studi Komparatif Akurasi Model Prediksi Kebangkrutan Altman dan Ohlson Terhadap Perusahaan Go Public di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Undergraduate thesis, Universitas Internasional Batam.

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Abstract

This research aim is to know accuracy of the Altman and Ohlson bankruptcy model and to compare the predictive ability both of the model through its application to public company in Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX). Sample of failure firms are selected in year range of time 2004 to 2009. Examinee factors in determination of accuracy of prediction model is ability classification in bankrupt, non bankrupt and also total error classification category. Statistical test used to test research hypothesis is Chi Square. As examination variable is result of classification both of determined model through comparison of status of actual company with status of prediction by yielded score both model. Data in the form of financial information stem from annual financial statement which had been publicized by pertinent company. Data in the form of market value of equity are obtained through statistic of idx. While in the form of economics indicators of Indonesia in the form of gross domestic product deflator obtained through world development indicator database and bureau statistical centre of Indonesia. Result of research indicate that even Altman’s model have ability of higher level classification rather than Ohlson’s model but can not be found significant differences through Chi Square test. Key Words: Bankruptcy, Altman Z Score, Ohlson O Score, Multivariate Discriminant Analysis, Logit Analysis, Predictive Ability, Classification Error.

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